Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.769563 13.797905 16.021594 18.633722 21.611103 24.891902 28.773276
2025-01-05 8.566191 11.167912 14.284067 18.264205 23.182727 29.029584 36.470677
2025-01-12 6.751606 9.616060 13.305555 18.346147 24.984204 33.350618 44.603767
2025-01-19 5.477946 8.429742 12.478440 18.335380 26.469204 37.225711 52.356583
2025-01-26 4.848830 7.970620 12.485853 19.335843 29.271917 42.932710 62.849745
2025-02-02 4.299880 7.511215 12.386481 20.106454 31.746575 48.307129 73.217511
2025-02-09 3.882544 7.172003 12.391314 20.981311 34.387842 54.045825 84.433893
2025-02-16 3.354059 6.556759 11.868980 20.953743 35.621728 57.771199 92.926771
2025-02-23 2.809519 5.818633 11.038690 20.314688 35.802522 59.873971 99.074271
2025-03-02 2.335827 5.124850 10.182888 19.514911 35.611639 61.332341 104.257957
2025-03-09 2.056277 4.750454 9.832911 19.524336 36.720927 64.864039 112.829958
2025-03-16 1.828194 4.439185 9.554153 19.617411 37.955491 68.644262 121.979200
2025-03-23 1.615399 4.130897 9.254382 19.661710 39.145318 72.491955 131.588367
2025-03-30 1.357291 3.676682 8.608030 18.980926 38.975693 74.033797 137.472898
2025-04-06 1.199739 3.422247 8.331557 18.980499 40.037683 77.739943 147.201852
2025-04-13 1.060298 3.184065 8.055445 18.944644 41.016507 81.341558 156.928382
2025-04-20 1.016461 3.178132 8.284221 19.966476 44.100102 88.876935 173.916117
2025-04-27 0.958873 3.125603 8.400107 20.756696 46.779133 95.815964 190.179026
2025-05-04 0.912393 3.094712 8.561009 21.655500 49.732939 103.413230 207.981106
2025-05-11 0.815524 2.902843 8.314128 21.626957 50.790025 107.508054 219.594379
2025-05-18 0.697740 2.623676 7.814081 20.969883 50.482086 108.973882 226.408320
2025-05-25 0.588523 2.344241 7.270782 20.147511 49.744722 109.543121 231.538578
2025-06-01 0.528987 2.210242 7.087028 20.157198 50.796488 113.665796 243.583767